The Chinese Century - An NPI Staff Report

April 2010

An NPI Staff Report

The tripling of total world population and the displacement of Europeans as the overwhelmingly dominant racial group in the U. S . are two of the most significant geopolitical events of the last half century.

If world wide population growth were to stop today the accumulation from the baby binge would continue to echo down the decades. But a numerically static world is not expected. Barring the arrival of a devastating intervention world population is forecast to increase 45% in the next 50 years.

20 % of the world is European and developed. Another 20% in the case of China is on the way to first world status. The vast majority of the remaining 60% live on subsistence rations without prospects for material improvement. Because of the numbers this geography is speckled with pockets and even broad swathes of tolerable living conditions. Those who seek improvement typically hasten to nations dominated by Europeans. This is a double negative as it robs the native county of its best talent but often does little to improve the intellectual capital of the host country. ⁽¹⁾

China has the population, geography, intellectual capital to aspire to world grandeur. To these assets it brings a political resolve which is framed by its cultural cohesiveness and ethnic homogeneity. On this last point it is worth noting that 80% of the population is “Han Chinese” and this extended tribe encompasses only some 400 family names. The vast majority of these people will be moving from third world to first world status in the next two generations. This development will allow them to care for their own stragglers and project a world presence.

There will be hundreds of millions of South Central Asians (on the Indian sub-continent) who will make the same pilgrimage. However, with a smaller intellectual capital base and less social cohesion the tide of affluence will not be strong enough to lift most boats. There will be literally billions of fugitives from discomfort looking for shelter. The same as today.

To a great extent, the experience of the Hispanics and Arabs will follow the Central Asian example. Many will move out of poverty, but most will languishing in a Hobbesian state that is “nasty, brutish and short.” The same as today.

Sub Sahara African will bestride a continent of universal destitution. The smattering of able individuals will be lost in the sea of humanity who are not able to make more than a subsistence livelihood and are further reduced by tribal depredations. The same as today.

While the expected population rate of increase is falling, more importantly, the disproportionate birth rate between populations concentrates the gain to the least mentally competent members of the global community. Almost 60% or 1.8 billion of the population gain will occur with individuals who have an IQ under 80 and of that the majority will be under 70: the latter being dividing line of mental retardation. But this figure is additive and the total population in this category will number almost 4 billion and comprise 50% of the Third World’s population. These precincts will be dangerous to visit and awful to inhabit.

In the next 50 years, the only new first world county will be China. China will create a powerful economic magnet that should pull neighbors into its orbit. Such a constellation would cluster people unique from their international counterparts in many respects. Their languages are tonal, their writing uses characters, their religions have no connection to “people of the book,” their cultures are cooperative rather than individualistic and they are family driven rather than corporate oriented, they have a long history of isolation and preference for their own kind and culture.

The East Asians have no history of welcoming immigrants and are more known for their xenophobia. In any event, there will be no melting into the crowd and those who manage to gain admittance will have alien written on them from head to toe.

By default, the European countries throughout the world will continue to be the main emigrant destinations.

As ethnic and racial diversity are translated into political power in the host countries, the pace of immigration will accelerate to the point that might cause citizens, both new and old, to recognize their own peril and perhaps to stop or to slow the process. However, in the meantime, most European countries in the New World and perhaps even the Old World will have been changed beyond recognition and their intellectual capital eroded by socially sanctioned if not government promoted miscegenation.

The U. S. in 2060 is slated to have a diverse population and one of the predictable consequences is a change in the average national IQ or intellectual capital account. The following schedule illustrates one of the geopolitical dynamics of this revision.

China/U. S. Ratio 1-1 10-1 3.2-1

On both sides of the Bell Curve the U. S. will be at a distinct disadvantage; China will trump the U. S. in high potential individuals yet it will have only 4.7% low capacity citizens where as the U. S. will have 3 X this ratio . China’s intellectual capital account is a function of its huge population advantage and its higher average IQ population; mental acuity has a social correlation apart from its problem solving attribute. ⁽³⁾

But of more importance will be the ties that bind countries together. The U. S. national psyche is a patchwork of prescriptive values imperfectly internalized by a diverse population. By comparison China’s culture is organic and its people ancient.

In this scenario China, even if the numbers shift considerably, could likely emerge as the world hegemon with its monocultural institutions strong, its native population intact and its unimpaired intellectual capital more valuable than ever.

*Unless otherwise indicated figures come from “Global White Population to Plummet.” National Policy Institute http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/publications/?b=population

(1) NPI “Affirmative Action and the Cost of Immigration.” National Policy Institute http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/publications

(2) “The Wealth and I. Q. of Nations.”

(3) U. S. A . Economic and social correlates of IQ

Values are the percentage of each IQ sub-population, among non-Hispanic whites only, fitting each descriptor. Bell Curve, Herrnstein & Murray (1994) pp. 171, 158, 163, 174, 230, 180, 132, 194, 247-248, 194, 146 respectively.

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The Chinese Century - An NPI Staff Report